據(jù)?？怂剐侣劸W(wǎng)6月27日報道，美國傳統(tǒng)基金會客座研究員、經(jīng)濟學家斯蒂芬·摩爾警告稱，美國已經(jīng)處于“溫和衰退”之中，并指出“真正的問題”是美聯(lián)儲是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)軟著陸。

Economist Stephen Moore warned on Monday that the United States is already in a "soft recession," noting that the "real question" is now whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing.

6月27日，經(jīng)濟學家斯蒂芬·摩爾警告稱，美國已經(jīng)處于“溫和衰退”之中，并指出“真正的問題”是美聯(lián)儲是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)軟著陸。

Moore, a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, provided the insight on "Varney & Co." Monday, reacting to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers contradicting President Biden on Sunday by saying that a recession was "almost inevitable" in the next two years.

6月27日，美國傳統(tǒng)基金會客座研究員摩爾接受福克斯新聞節(jié)目“Varney & Co”采訪時發(fā)表了這一見解，回應了美國前財政部長拉里·薩默斯的觀點。6月26日，薩默斯反駁拜登總統(tǒng)，稱未來兩年美國經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)衰退“幾乎不可避免”。

Summers provided the insight speaking on Bloomberg's "Wall Street Week," noting that there was a risk a recession could come sooner.

薩默斯在接受彭博社"華爾街周刊"采訪時指出，經(jīng)濟衰退可能會更快到來。

However, last Monday, President Biden said that there was "nothing inevitable about a recession," and that he talked to Summers that morning.

然而，6月20日拜登總統(tǒng)表示“經(jīng)濟衰退沒有什么不可避免的”，并在當天上午與薩默斯進行了交談。

Moore noted on Monday that he didn’t agree with Biden nor Summers and that he believed the US was already in a mild recession.

摩爾6月27日指出，他不同意拜登和薩默斯的觀點，他認為美國已經(jīng)處于溫和衰退中。

A recession refers to a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) activity, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, for two consecutive quarters.

經(jīng)濟衰退是指國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）活動連續(xù)兩個季度收縮，GDP是衡量一個經(jīng)濟體生產(chǎn)商品和服務的最廣泛指標。

It was revealed in late April that the US economy cooled markedly in the first three months of the year, as snarled supply chains, record-high inflation and labor shortages weighed on growth and slowed the pandemic recovery.

4月底公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，供應鏈混亂、創(chuàng)紀錄的高通脹和被勞動力短缺拖累的經(jīng)濟增長和復蘇，這些因素導致今年前三個月美國經(jīng)濟明顯降溫。

Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the "first six months of the year have been negative for growth."

摩爾在6月27日提到了GDP數(shù)據(jù)，并指出“今年上半年的增長為負值。”

He also noted that the figure is "not a catastrophic loss in GDP, but we’re probably down 1% from where we were six months ago."

他指出，“GDP沒有出現(xiàn)災難性的下降，但可能比六個月前下降了1%”。

"And then when you add to that the fact that people’s incomes in real terms are falling really fast, something like $2,000 to $3,000 a year, that’s a recession," he continued. "So yeah, we’re in a recession."

“再加上人們的實際收入正在快速下降，大約每年減少2000到3000美元，這就是一場衰退。是的，我們正處于經(jīng)濟衰退中?！?/p>

Moore then said that he believes "the only real question right now is whether we’re going to have a soft landing or we are going to have a crash landing."

摩爾接著說，他認為“目前唯一真正的問題是，美國要實現(xiàn)軟著陸，還是要實現(xiàn)硬著陸?！?/p>

Many economists, like Moore, are wondering whether the Fed can successfully engineer the elusive soft landing — the sweet spot between tamping down demand to cool inflation without sending the economy into a downturn. Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending.

摩爾等許多經(jīng)濟學家都在猜測，美聯(lián)儲能否成功實現(xiàn)難以捉摸的軟著陸，即在抑制需求以緩解通脹的同時又不讓經(jīng)濟陷入低迷的最佳結(jié)果。加息往往會提高消費者和企業(yè)的貸款利率，迫使雇主削減支出，從而減緩經(jīng)濟增長。

Earlier this June, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75-basis points for the first time in nearly three decades.

6月早些時候，美聯(lián)儲宣布加息75個基點，這是近30年來首次。

Moore argued that whether a soft landing can be achieved largely "depends on the policy decisions that the Fed and the Biden administration make over the course of the next two to three to six months."

摩爾認為，能否實現(xiàn)軟著陸在很大程度上“取決于美聯(lián)儲和拜登政府在未來兩三個月到六個月內(nèi)作出的政策決定”。

來源：?？怂剐侣劸W(wǎng)
編輯：董靜