近期國內多地出現聚集性疫情，加之國際地緣政治不穩定因素顯著增加，我國企業生產經營活動受到一定影響。3月份，制造業采購經理指數、非制造業商務活動指數和綜合PMI產出指數均降至收縮區間，表明我國經濟總體景氣水平有所回落。但分析人士仍對中國經濟中長期前景持樂觀態度。專家預測，未來幾個月，政府將出臺更有力的財政政策和更寬松的貨幣政策，進一步提振經濟增長。

China's manufacturing activities contracted in March for the first time in five months due to various uncertainties and negative impacts from home and abroad.
受國內外多重不穩定因素影響，3月份中國制造業活動出現五個月來的首次收縮。

However, analysts and officials remain upbeat about the medium- and long-term prospects of the Chinese economy, as the country still has room for macro policy fine-tuning and adjustments.
然而，分析人士和官員對中國經濟中長期前景仍持樂觀態度，認為中國宏觀經濟政策仍有作為空間。

They expected a stronger fiscal policy and more easing monetary measures in the coming months to further shore up growth, including tax reductions, more infrastructure investment, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts.
他們預測，未來幾個月，政府將出臺更有力的財政政策和更寬松的貨幣政策，包括減稅、增加基礎設施投資、下調存貸款基準利率和存款準備金率，進一步提振經濟增長。

The purchasing managers index for China's manufacturing sector stood at 49.5 in March, compared with 50.2 in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, slipping into contraction after staying in expansionary territory for four consecutive months. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
國家統計局數據顯示，3月份中國制造業采購經理指數（PMI）為49.5，而2月份為50.2。中國制造業PMI在連續四個月保持擴張態勢后，開始下滑。PMI以50點為“榮枯分水線”。

The nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction sectors, was at 48.4 versus 51.6 in February, slipping into contraction for the first time in seven months, according to the NBS.
根據國家統計局數據，涵蓋服務業和建筑業的非制造業PMI為48.4，2月份為51.6，七個月來首次出現收縮。

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician with the NBS, said the resurgence in COVID-19 cases that affected some areas has dealt a blow to service sectors, such as transportation, accommodations and catering.
國家統計局高級統計師趙慶河表示，國內部分地區疫情出現反彈，給交通運輸業和餐飲業等服務行業帶來沖擊。

For manufacturers, the resurgence has affected the production and operation of some enterprises, and the escalating geopolitical tensions led to a decline in or the cancellation of export orders, Zhao said.
趙慶河稱，疫情反復使部分制造業企業的生產經營受到影響，不斷升級的地緣政治緊張局勢導致出口訂單減少或取消。

Zhao added that midstream and downstream enterprises are also facing pressure from the rising costs of raw materials, with surging commodity prices clouding the outlook.
他表示，中下游企業也面臨著原材料成本上漲的壓力，大宗商品價格大幅上漲給行業前景蒙上陰影。

However, businesses remained upbeat about future business prospects, Zhao said. The enterprises surveyed said that suppressed demand and production would gradually recover with the government's effective measures to control the pandemic, and the market is likely to rebound.
不過，趙慶河表示，企業對未來的商業前景仍持樂觀態度。調查企業反映，隨著疫情得到有效控制，受抑制的產需將會逐步恢復，市場有望回暖。

Despite the downward pressures, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, highlighted that the high-tech manufacturing PMI had stayed in expansionary territory, saying this indicates the steady progress of economic structural transformation and high-quality development.
粵開證券首席經濟學家羅志恒強調，盡管面臨經濟下行壓力，但高科技制造業PMI一直處于擴張區間，這表明經濟結構轉型和高質量發展穩步推進。

Luo said the current economic situation requires a proactive fiscal policy, such as promoting the issuance of local government special bonds to accelerate infrastructure construction and stabilize investment, and more efforts should also be made to ensure the basic livelihood of people affected by COVID outbreaks.
羅志恒認為，當前經濟形勢下需要采取積極的財政政策，比如加快地方政府專項債券發行，推動基礎設施建設和穩定投資，還應該采取更多措施，保障受疫情影響地區人民群眾的基本生活。

Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute, estimated that the manufacturing PMI reading may expand above the 50-point mark in the following months with the help of the government's effective measures to control the pandemic and stabilize growth.
財新國際經濟研究院副院長吳朝明估計，隨著政府采取有效措施控制疫情和穩定增長，未來幾個月制造業PMI可能會重回50點以上。

Experts said the intensifying economic headwinds could persuade the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, to launch near-term easing measures such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates.
專家表示，為應對經濟發展所面臨的壓力，中國人民銀行可能會實施短期寬松政策，下調存款準備金率和政策利率。

At its first-quarter monetary policy committee meeting, the PBOC declared its determination to stabilize the economy by pledging "more substantial support" for the real economy and efforts to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, according to a statement released on Wednesday.
3月30日消息稱，在中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會2022年第一季度例會上，中國人民銀行宣布其決心穩定經濟，承諾為實體經濟提供更有力支持，進一步疏通貨幣政策傳導機制。

The statement highlighted the emerging challenges posed by escalating geopolitical tensions and more frequent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, in addition to the lingering pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations.
中國人民銀行聲明強調，當前國內疫情發生頻次有所增多，地緣政治沖突升級，經濟發展面臨需求收縮、供給沖擊、預期轉弱三重壓力。

Yu Yongding, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China should stick with a fairly expansionary monetary policy to ensure the stabilization of growth, in spite of overseas central banks' interest rate hikes and potentially higher inflationary pressure.
中國社會科學院高級經濟學家余永定表示，盡管海外央行加息，通脹壓力可能上升，中國應堅持擴張性貨幣政策，以確保經濟增長穩定。

"The risk of inflation has risen due to changes in the international environment. But monetary tightening won't be the sensible solution to inflation caused by supply shocks," Yu said.
他表示：“國際環境的變化導致通脹風險加劇。但貨幣緊縮并不是解決供應沖擊造成的通貨膨脹的明智辦法。”

If inflationary pressure worsens amid restrictions on the global commodity supply, responsive measures other than monetary policy should be taken, as tightening monetary policy in such circumstances risks triggering deflation, said Yu, who is also a former member of the PBOC's monetary policy committee.
余永定曾任中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會委員，他認為，如果在全球商品供應受到限制的情況下通脹壓力加劇，則應采取貨幣政策以外的應對措施，因為在這種情況下收緊貨幣政策有可能引發通貨緊縮。

It is advisable for the PBOC to further ease credit conditions to tide over small and medium-sized enterprises amid difficulties while supporting infrastructure investment by reducing the financing costs of related government bonds, he added.
余永定還表示，中國人民銀行宜進一步放寬信貸條件，以幫助中小企業渡過難關，同時通過降低相關政府債券的融資成本來支持基礎設施投資。

來源：中國日報
編輯：董靜